Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Arthur Conan Doyle reveals Holmes Essay Example for Free
Arthur Conan Doyle reveals Holmes Essay Examine how Arthur Conan Doyle reveals Holmes character and his relationship with the police. Sherlock Holmes was created by Conan-Doyle in 1887. When Arthur Conan-Doyles character, Sherlock Holmes surfaced, London in the era of Queen Victoria was an intriguing place to live. At this time, Victorian people feared crime greatly due to the prostitution, drug abuse but mainly an infamous murderer, Jack the ripper. This brutal murderer was loose on the streets of London attacking vulnerable women savagely with a sharp, long-bladed weapon, this panicked many women due to the fact that the polices methods were seen as inefficient; therefore would rarely solve the cases by catching the ruthless villains. Many Victorians had little if no faith for the police in London, as they did not appear to be protecting the public. On the other hand, Holmes, who is an excellent detective, is well known for his use of logic and observational understanding to unravel complicated cases. He described himself as a consulting detective an expert who is brought in to cases that have proven too difficult for other investigators; we are told that he is often able to solve a problem without leaving his home. This is prodigious as Holmes was actually an amateur detective, not a member of the London police force. The purpose of this essay is therefore to show Holmes character and his relationship with the police. In some cases Holmes breaks the law, in others he does not. One example of when he doesnt is in Silver Blaze; Sherlock Holmes and Dr Watson pay a visit to their old friends the Baskervilles and find themselves in the middle of a mystery involving a missing horse and its dead trainer. Doyle reveals through his writing that Holmess character is very egotistical. This is shown many times throughout the story: I follow my own methods and tell as much or as little as I choose. Here, Holmes is being very demanding showing that he does not have much respect for other people; this is very shocking as Watson is not only a companion but most importantly a friend too. I think Doyle does this to ensure Holmes is referred to as a very dominant character in addition to being arrogant and making people feel small and unimportant. Doyle through his use of language creates Holmess character to have a greater intelligence over the police. Doyle uses sarcasm to show this: Inspector Gregory, to whom the case has been committed, is a very competent officer, were he but gifted with the imagination he might rise to great heights during his profession. This also shows that Holmes has no faith in the inspector in solving the case as Doyle uses the word might to show the sarcasm therefore implying that he has no hope for the police in cracking the mystery. This same egotistical behavior towards the police is also repeated later on when Holmes says See the value of imagination; it is the one quality which Gregory lacks. As this is repeated in his writing it reveals that Doyle is trying to emphasize Holmess views of the police as being incompetent. Furthermore, Holmes relationship with the police is very argumentative. Holmes is always mocking the police by acting witty. This is shown when Holmes says The inspector here has done all that he could possibly be suggested; but I wish to leave no stone unturned in trying to avenge poor Straker, and in recovering my horse. Doyle uses this sarcastic language to reveal Holmes true disrespectful manner and arrogance towards the police. In addition to that Holmes finds great pleasure in finding the clues way before the police are anywhere near. When the inspector says I cannot think how I came to overlook it, Holmes replies I only saw it because I was looking for it! Doyle, with the use of that language implies that Holmes was actually observing the murder scene, whereas the inspector did not think to do that. To Holmes, using his logic and observational understanding is general common sense, this is one of the reasons how Holmes makes the detectives feel incapable of their job in which they specialize in.
Monday, January 20, 2020
Analysis of the Paul Cronan Case Essay -- Legal Analysis Discriminatio
Analysis of the Paul Cronan Case I. Legal Analysis, Issue 1 Issue: Does party bringing suit (Plaintiff ââ¬â Paul Cronan) qualify under the ADA for disability? Rule: In Review of ADA and the principles set forth at that time, there are several relevancies to consider here. A disability is described as follows: ââ¬Å"For purposes of nondiscrimination laws (e.g. the Americans with Disabilities Act, Section 503 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and Section 188 of the Workforce Investment Act), a person with a disability is generally defined as someone who (1) has a physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more "major life activities," (2) has a record of such an impairment, or (3) is regarded as having such an impairment. Have a severe disability (or combination of disabilities) that has lasted, or is expected to last, at least 12 months or result in death, and which prevents working at a "substantial gainful activity" level. State vocational rehabilitation (VR) offices will find a person with a disability to be eligible for VR services if he or she has a physical or mental impairment that constitutes or results in a "substantial impediment" to employment for the applicant. Some of these definitions include words or phrases that have been the subject of lawsuits, as individuals, agencies, and courts try to clarify the terms used in some of these definitions of disability. If you want to find out if a particular disability or condition gives you certain rights, contact the federal or state agency To be found disabled for purposes of Social Security disability benefits, individuals must that enforces the law in question. If you want to find out if you qualify for a particular program or service, contact the federal or state agency that administers the program to find out the specifics of the disability definition they use.â⬠This information is readily available on the World Wide Web at the following l ink: http://www.dol.gov/odep/faqs/federal.htm Analysis: Does the disease of AIDS/ARC/HIV qualify as a disabling condition under the ADA requirements? Is this disease and the effects it has on capacity for life activities a disability? Yes, now, since 1998, when the U.S. Supreme Court decided the case of Bragdon v. Abbott, the disease of HIV/AIDS does indeed qualify as a disability. However, this is legislation to late for Paul Cr... ...he hostile environment that was occurring was in direct relation to the violated privacy of Mr. Cronan. NET internal management it is believed could see for itself the exact nature of the harassment and fear problem. NET failed to recognize or react to either situation. It is imperative to understand that NET was liable for its employees but the employees, as individuals were also liable for their actions. NET lacked the system controls necessary to keep the company liability to a minimum on this issue. Usually with failures such as these, the system internal controls are this company is lacking the most. Ethical behavior among management is key to ethical behavior among employees. Overall Conclusions: After review of the legal and ethical implications associated with the Paul Cronan Case, we need to understand that the laws in place today to protect someone in Mr. Cronanââ¬â¢s situation were not in place at the time of incident. AIDS/HIV were not considered a disability until many years after this occurred. The Company NET did indeed violate the employeeââ¬â¢s rights. NET compromised Mr. Cronan, both ethically and legally. Mr. Cronan was within his rights to file suit against NET.
Sunday, January 12, 2020
Jonathan Edwards Essay
Jonathan Edwards uses an effective method called the ââ¬Å"fire and brimstoneâ⬠approach, which basically used scare tactics to keep people from straying away from the church. Jonathan Edwards was a master at using literary devices, which horrified but intrigued his audience. He (Edwards) wrote in second person to make each individual feel responsible for their own sins, this strategy allowed Edwards to speak to large groups. Edwards also used extended metaphors to help his audience realize the full extent of their sins. An example of this imagery is, ââ¬Å" The wrath of God is like great waters that are dammed for the present; they increase more and more, and rise higher and higher till an outlet is given; and the longer the stream is stopped, the more rapid and mighty the course, when once it is let loose.â⬠(Sinners 1). This metaphor shows the extent that Edwards goes to show parishioners of what God is capable of doing to the Human race if they do not seek salvation. Edwards uses bandwagon appeal to keep people from leaving the church. He believed that if he could convince enough people that the church is the only way to receive the ââ¬Å"grace of godâ⬠that it would lead to a mass movement; if enough people went that the rest would follow in their footsteps. Edwards tries to persuade people to return to church by stating that those who attend are happy, ââ¬Å"To see so many others feasting, while you are pinning and perishing! To see so many rejoicing and singing for joy of heart, while you have cause to mourn for sorrow of heart, and howl for vexation of spirit!â⬠(Sinners 1). This method proved to be effective because people returned to the church, they feared for the outcome of their life and sought forgiveness just as their neighbors did. Jonathan Edwardsââ¬â¢s beliefs and ideas began to affect peopleââ¬â¢s everyday lives and restore the church to its former glory. Jonathan Edwards believes that it is manââ¬â¢s duty to serve God in all aspects. He expresses his view that every man has the will to decide what is right from wrong, good from evil and what God would expect from a devout believer in his book Freedom of the Will. This book essentially breaks down what man desires and the choices man can make, he exposes how all these actions are relevant to the after life. Edwards tries to show that earthly matters will not a provide eternal happiness and that a manââ¬â¢s life on Earth is a time to prove his worthiness for judgment day by proclaiming ââ¬Å"â⬠¦but look at other things, as the good state of your bodily constitution, your care of your own life, and the means you use for your own preservation. But indeed these things are nothingâ⬠(sinners 1). Jonathan Edwards is known for his vivid depictions of what Godââ¬â¢s wrath would be like. This dark imagery gave the public an idea of what their eternal punishment would be like if they did not conform to the holy life of the church. The imagery horrified people because it made people believe that God could damn each and every person to Hell for their sins. An example of the dark imagery is ââ¬Å"The bow of Godââ¬â¢s wrath is bent, and the arrow made ready on the string, and justice bends the arrow at your heart, and strains the bow, and it is nothing but the mere pleasure of God, and that of an angry God, without any promise or obligation at all, that keeps the arrow one moment from being made drunk with your bloodâ⬠. (Sinners 1). By saying this Edwards strikes fear into the listener. Edwards often uses repetition to emphasize his condemnation on society for their lack of faith in the church. For example ââ¬Å"You hang by a slender thread, with the flames of divine wrath flashing about it, and ready every moment to singe it, and burn it asunder; and you have no interest in any Mediator, and nothing to lay hold of to save yourself, nothing to keep off the flames of wrath, nothing of your own, nothing that you ever have done, nothing that you can do, to induce God to spare you one momentâ⬠(sinners 1). He stresses the word ââ¬Å"nothingâ⬠to show that all are helpless and to further belittle each individual. Edwards also repeats the word ââ¬Å" youâ⬠to make each person feel responsible for their actions and to single out each individual. Edwards also ensures that each line in his sermons are threatening to create a sense of an ultimatum; conform to the church or burn in Hell for all eternity. ââ¬Å"Your wickedness makes you as it were heavy as lead, and to tend downwards with great weight and pressure towards hell; and if God should let you go, you would immediately sink and swiftly descend and plunge into the bottomless gulf, and your healthy constitution, and your own care and prudence, and best contrivance, and all your righteousness, would have no more influence to uphold you and keep you out of hell, than a spiderââ¬â¢s web would have to stop a falling rockâ⬠(sinners 1). This quote shows how Edwards creates a sense of hope for the parishioners but when further analyzed it has a very negative and damning connotation. Edwards tries to portray his belief that God only lets you live because it pleasures him. This provides false hope but in reality he is saying that there is no way for anyone to be saved.
Saturday, January 4, 2020
Network Opimisation Problems And Forecasting - Free Essay Example
Sample details Pages: 8 Words: 2470 Downloads: 1 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Research paper Did you like this example? The Makonsel Company, a fully integrated company that both produces and sells goods at its retail outlets. After production, the goods are stored in companys two warehouses until needed by the retail outlets. Trucks are used to transport the goods from the two plants to the warehouses, and then from the warehouses to the three retail outlets. Using units of full truckloads, the following table shows each plants monthly output, its shipping cost per truckload sent to each warehouse, and the maximum amount that it can ship per month to each warehouse. Unit Shipping Cost For each retail outlet (RO), the next table shows its monthly demand, its shipping cost per truckload from each warehouse, and the maximum amount that can be shipped per month from each warehouse. Donââ¬â¢t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Network Opimisation Problems And Forecasting" essay for you Create order Unit Shipping Cost The Managements objective is to determine the shipping plan (number of truckloads shipped per month from each plant to each warehouse and from each warehouse to each retail outlet) that will minimise the total shipping cost. In order to achieve the objective, the following issues will be discussed : The distribution network of Makonsel Company, algebraic formulation for the network model, spreadsheet formulation for this problem by using the solver of excel and interpretation and recommendation of the result. The distribution network A network model for the Makonsel Company problem as a minimum-cost flow problem According to the data from the table above we put it into a distribution network. The supply nodes in this network are P1 (plant1) and P2 (plant2), the transshipment nodes are W1 (warehouse1) and W2 (warehouse2) and the demand nodes in this network are RO1, RO2 and RO3. And the shipping cost and the shipping capacity differ considerably among these shipping lanes. The cost per unit shipped and the maximum amount that it can ship per month (given in square brackets of the arc) through each lane is shown above corresponding arrow in the above Figure. Algebraic Formulation Solution: Decision variables Makonsel must determine how much to ship per month from each plant to each warehouse and from each warehouse to each retail outlet. Let Xij = Number of truckloads to ship from i to j (i = P1, P2; j = W1, W2). Let Xjk =Number of truckloads to ship from j to k (j =W1, W2 k=RO1, RO2, RO3). Then Makonsels problem may be formulated as Objective: Subject to: The first five constraints ensure that each retail outlet is meet their monthly demand, and the 2 Sources constraints are ensure that each plants monthly output and the last 10 ensure the maximum amount that can be shipped per month. Spreadsheet Formulation After we finished the algebraic formulation, we can transform them to spreadsheet, and using the solver of Excel to work out the distribution problem. The spreadsheet formulations are all showed in the graph below. A spreadsheet model for the Makonsel Company minimum-cost flow problem, where the changing cells (C4:C13) show the optimal solution obtained by the Solver and the target cell (E15) gives the resulting total cost of the flow through the network. Interpretation and Recommendation The optimal solution for the Makonsel Company problem, where the shipping amounts are shown in parentheses over the arrows By using excel we can calculate the minimum total shipping cost of Makonsel Company is Ãâà ¿Ãâà ¡488.125. In order to make the minimum total monthly shipping cost of Ãâà ¿Ãâà ¡488.125, the Makonsel Company should first transport 125 truckloads per month from plant 1to warehouse 1 and 75 units to warehouse 2. And ship 175 truckloads per month from plant 2 to warehouse 1, ship 125 truckloads per month to warehouse2. After that the retail outlet1, retail outlet 2 and retail outlet 3 should get 100 truckloads, 50 truckloads and 100 truckloads from warehouse 1 respectively. And should separately transport 50 truckloads, 150 truckloads and 50 truckloads from warehouse 2 to retail outlet1, retail outlet 2 and retail outlet 3. As we have known the shipping cost per truckload from each plant and each warehouse from the table. Thus the Minimum Cost= 425*125+560*75+510*125+600*175+470*100+505*50 +490*100+390*50+410*150+440*50 =488,125 Conclusion Determined the shipping plan which can minimise the total shipping cost is the management objective of Makonsel Company. By building the distribution network , formulating the constraints and calculating the result through using the solver of excel , Makonsel Company successfully solve the distribution network problem and construct the shipping plan with the minimum total shipping cost of Ãâà ¿Ãâà ¡488.125. Forecasting Introduction The time-series below relates to the Sales of a company (00s) for the last five years. The objective is to use the information contained in the time-series data above to construct a forecast of the next four quarters sales. In order to achieve the objective, the following issues will be discussed: Analysis this time-series, Detrend a Time-Series and construct the Seasonal Indices by MINITAB, Forecasting the next four quarters sales and use measures to identify the forecast accuracy, Reservations about the appropriateness of the forecasting procedure used. Time-series Analysis Main characteristics of this time-series The first step in any forecasting exercise is to plot a graph of the time-series. We transfer the data from the table to Minitab and use the time series plot-simple of Minitab to make the graph, since the time-series was recorded in quarter, so we choose the quarter of calendar in time scale. The plot of this time-series looks like: Form the graph above We can roughly find out that there is a decreasing trend over time, a clear quarterly seasonal effect and it is a table time series, the pattern is regular with little random noise. With the purpose of confirming the characteristics of the time-series, we use the cantered moving averages (CMA). Since the CMA is the average and smoothed data of the actual figures, which is much easier for us to determine the characteristics of the time-series, we use this plot instead. As the time-series was recorded in quarters and with quarterly seasonal effect so the length of moving average is 4, and chose the moving averages, plot the g raph smoothed vs. actual. Negative Trend Structure, an decreasing trend over time It is a negative trend structure. Look at the smoothed line of this time-series, as at the beginning of the time-series the sales of this company is about 485 ,however , it keeps decreasing and from about 485 down to around 478 to roughly 471 and finally it decrease to around 405. A clear seasonal structure , additive seasonal structure It can be seen from the graph above that there is a clear quarterly seasonal structure, for each quarter 1 the actual observed value is about 13 units below the trend value. For quarters 2, 3 4 estimating from the graph the actual observed values are 30 above, 22 above and 23 below the estimated trend values. Seasonal Structures: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13 30 22 -23 These are estimates of the seasonal indices; and also in this case, for a given variable the quarter 1 is 13 units below trend, quarter 2, 3 are 30 units and 22 units above trend, quarter 4 is 23 units below trend. And it can be seen from the graph above, seasonal deviation is constant about the trend so this seasonal structure is additive. A table time series, the pattern is regular with little random noise The graph of Moving average plot for sales above shows us that the pattern is regular with little random noise, it decreasing stability of the seasonal pattern, and also from the smoothed line we can find that the series reduce stability, from about 485 down to around 478 to roughly 471, ect. No more than 10units lower. Model the time-series QUADRATIC TREND MODELS There are two trend models ,one is linear trend model (Trend = a + b*t ) and the other is Quadratic trend model (Trend = a + b*t + ct2 ), and as we have been calculated the Cantered Moving Average (CMA)above, which is the average and smoothed line of the actual sales, so by using the CMA, we can use value of these two models to compare with the value of CMA, and then choose the model which the value is much closer to the CMA as our forecasting model. There are three commonly used measures of forecast accuracy: Mean Square Deviation (MSD), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). And the smaller the data is, the more accurate of the forecast. And it can be seen from the graph above that the Quadratic Trend Model, MAPE=0.43297, MAD=1.91172, MSD = 5.44313, and to the Linear Trend Model, MAPE=0.51281, MAD=2.21232, MSD = 7.74838. The data of the Quadratic Trend Model are all smaller than the Linear Trend Model, which means that the value of quadratic t rend model is much closer than value of the CMA; the quadratic trend model is much more accurate than the linear trend model, so choose the quadratic trend model to forecast. Detrend a Time-Series and construct SI of MINITAB Detrend a Time-Series Detrend a Time-Series, which means Sales-Trend (DIV), the gap between the actual sales and the forecast sales. After we have decided to take the quadratic model to forecast, we can record the data as the trend data, and the plot the graph above to compare with the sales and trend. And use the actual sales data minus the forecast one we can Detrend a Time-Series. As the graph shows us above the DIV1=472-500.367=-28.3673, DIV2=516-493.333=22.6674, DIV3=507-486.459=20.5414, DIV4=462-479.745=-17.7454, etc. By using the Minitab, we can use the calculator to figure the result. Construct the Seasonal Indices by MINITAB As Seasonal Indices is the quarter average of DIV, after we have calculated the DIV, we can use MINITAB to construct the seasonal indices. And in the MINITAB, we use the decomposition to figure out the SI. As we have described before that the sales trend of this company is additive and seasonal and the data were recorded in quarter, so the seasonal indices is four quarters as a unit, the seasonal length is 4 and the model type is additive. And Seasonal Indices is the average of each quarter of DIV, so the seasonal indices can be calculated as below: Quarter1=SI1= (DIV1+DIV5+DIV9+DIV13+DIV17)/5= -24.0937 Quarter2=SI2= (DIV2+DIV6+DIV10+DIV14+DIV18)/5=20.4062 Quarter3=SI3= (DIV3+DIV7+DIV11+DIV15+DIV19)/5=17.2812 Quarter4=SI4= (DIV4+DIV8+DIV12+DIV16+DIV20)/5=-13.5937 Since seasonal indices is the average of each quarter of DIV so SI is quarterly cycle, the value of SI5 will equal to the value of SI1, SI6=SI2, etc. And also it can be seen from graph above that the S I is quarterly cycle. Forecasting and measures of forecast accuracy Future Forecast As the Future Forecast equal Future Trend plus Future Seasonal Indices, so first we should use the CMA to calculate the future trend of the next four quarters. Since the CMA is the average and the smoothed data of the actual data, using the data of CMA can let forecast more accuracy. And the time-series is seasonal structure of quarter, so the number of forecast is 4. And we use trend analysis to calculate the future trend. After we figure out the future trend, copy the first four Seasonal Indices (SI is quarterly cycle) which we have calculated before (-24.0937, 20.4062, 17.2812, -13.5937), as Future Seasonal Indices. And then use the FTrend and FSI to figure out the Future Forecast value (FFC=FTrend+FSI). After figure out the FFC, copy them after the FC to plot a forecast. The plot of time series of sales and forecast looks like: So the next four quarters; Q1, Q2, Q3 Q4 of 2009 are: Q1=366.116, Q2=406.796, Q3=400.011, Q4=365.637 Measures of forecast accuracy After we calculate the forecasts for the next four quarters, we need to know whether the forecast is accurate or not, so we use the three commonly used measures of forecast accuracy: MSD, MPE and MAD to check the forecasts. i. Mean Square Deviation: MSD = S (Xt Ft)2/n ii. Mean Absolute Deviation: MAD = S |Xt Ft| /n iii. Mean Percentage Error: MPE = S |(Xt Ft)/Xt| /n Since all of measures above need the value of Xt Ft (error), so we should calculate the error first. Error = Sales-FC, in the Minitab we use calculator to figure it out. After calculated the error, we can figure out the value of accuracy. MSD = S (Xt Ft)2/n MAD = S |Xt Ft| /n MPE = S |(Xt Ft)/Xt| /n And for this forecast the MSD=29.3526, MAD=4.69560, MPE=1.08963. As we all know for each forecast indicator, the lower value, the higher prediction accuracy. And usually we use the MPE to confirm the accuracy. Lets look at the MPE, the value of MPE is equal to 1.08963%, though the value of M PE is slightly higher than 1%, it close to 1%, the forecast is still accuracy. Reservation In this forecasting procedure we faced two choices, one is determined the seasonal structure of the time-series, determining whether the seasonal structure is additive or multiplicative. And the other one is to confirm the trend model, choosing the linear model or the quadratic model. The choice we make will affect the accuracy of forecasting. Additive or Multiplicative In this forecasting, we analysis the time-series as additive seasonal structure by using method belowÃâà ¼Ãâ¦Ã ¡ Seasonal Structures: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13 30 22 -23 In this caseÃâà ¼Ãâ¦Ã¢â¬â¢for a given variable the quarter 1 is 13 units below trend, quarter 2 is 30 units above trend, etc. This is an Additive Seasonal Index. Alternatively we could have expressed the index as follows: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13% 30% 22% -23% Here the quarter 1 data is 13% below the trend value, or more conventionally 87% of trend, similarly for the other quarters. It is conventional to express this Seasonal Index as: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 87% 130% 122% 77% This is called a Multiplicative Seasonal Index and if the seasonal deviation is proportional to the trend then the seasonal structure is multiplicative. In this case we preferred the additive seasonal structure as the time-series constant about the trend, but in fact it could proportional to the trend and become the multiplicative seasonal structure in the future, so we should make appropriate adjustments base on the future data. Linear or Quadratic model In this case, we modeled the time-series as quadratic model due to the data the company provided closer to the quadratic model now, however, with the future data the model may be transformed into the linear model. Conclusion The objective of the company is to use time-series data to construct a forecast of the next four quarters sales. So as to do the forecast first we analysed the time-series to determine main characteristics of this time-series and modeled it, then found out the difference between the sales and trend to construct the seasonal indices, after that did the forecasting and to identify whether the forecast accurate or not by using the MAD, MSD and MPE. And the next four quarters sales of this company are Q1=366.116, Q2=406.796, Q3=400.011, Q4=365.637. However, during the forecasting procedure we should also consider about the choice we have made whether to choose additive or multiplicative, the linear model or the quadratic model will affect the accuracy of forecasting.
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